The people’s travel patterns around the world could be influenced by a number of things. This list includes persistent effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as rapid advances in technology.
Future scenarios
To put it simply, if the worst-case scenario unfolds in the future pandemic, then we may have traffic restrictions and other stricter controls on people – with the help of technology – even the very means we use to get around may change, with car ownership and use in an urban environment possibly being abolished, giving way to shared autonomous vehicles (AVs), and public transport taking on a different role.
In this age of unprecedented transformations and innovations, any discussion about the future seems to be in vain. However, discussions about the future are helpful for planning for things to come unexpectedly. APE-MPA talked about the possible changes with the director of the Research Group on Transport Systems of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Professor Aristotle Naniopoulos, and the director of the Laboratory of Transport Engineering of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Assistant Professor Ioannis Politis.
“If the pandemic develops like the ones in the past, it will leave behind limited changes in travel. But if the worst-case scenario is confirmed, we will have drastic changes,” Naniopoulos observed, speaking to APE-MPA.
Transportation
“Public transport around the world, which is understood to be absolutely necessary for environmental, social and economic reasons, could then be considered potentially dangerous, because it gathers a large number of people in a limited and not sufficiently ventilated space, with no check at the entrance to confirm if someone is sick and with a plethora of surfaces that passengers touch. It is not excluded then that we will see autonomous vehicles (without a driver) in taxi-type services, which will accommodate one or two passengers and will be self-cleaning, for example, with surfaces coated with nanomaterials,” he explains that making this idea a reality will require addressing many complex issues, like safety, institutional issues, and costs for the end user – none of which is simple.
But of course with the reduced need for mobility that many more people are living with, there is going to be a decrease in the frequency of travel (or an increase in mobility for those who do not need to use it currently). You may have different thoughts about travel now than the past. “Maybe we’ll see a decrease in movements, but man also moves for experience. For example, if you want to go to a new city, you can watch a documentary. Afterwards, you’ll have the same understanding of the place as someone who’s actually experiencing it in person.
Internet courses are helpful for many reasons–particularly for students in universities who rely on them. But of course, they cannot replace teachers who are in person with their students. Online courses are a great way to improve your skills and keep up with the latest trends in your industry. It’s not the same as live teaching but it provides valuable insights. Especially now, to note, at a time when young people are more likely to change careers than we ever were.
“A lot of variations we’ll see in our movements. Changes that are probably here to stay because of the pandemic. Brave examples are telecommuting or even tele-education, but also shopping via ecommerce instead of visiting physical stores. Furthermore, more examples are remote diagnosis in private practices, in combination with the progress of technology, which makes all this possible”,Speaking to the Associated Press-MPA, the transport scientist Ioannis Politis, professor of Civil Engineering at Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, told us.
For the time being, states still hold the baton of digital transformation. That responsibility, though, will soon be taken up by private sector who will create new data in work places, schools and private clinics. Which are all reasons why people move.
“The truth is of course that we are living something unprecedented, so everything is scenarios and estimates, but useful for strategy-making. How the pattern of travel may actually change in the near future, due to the coronavirus, is very difficult to predict, even with relative accuracy, because we do not know how the pandemic itself will develop. If the formation of a vaccine comes quickly, probably nothing will change and we will be back exactly where we were. But if such pandemics settle in as a threat, with high mortality rates, a lot will certainly change,” he says.
In this latter case, changes expectedly will occur in public transport and transportation. As he says, currently “public transport providers have not signed any commitment with the state about the number of people they carry per bus or wagon.” If it fits 100 people, then it’ll fit. However, if the Covid-19 problem persists and states get larger, they will have to start imposing restrictions. For example, it turns out that over 50% of the capacity of the buses or trains will be in use to make them safe. This is going to change how we transport people.
However, alongside the problem of how to operate public transport as such, there is also an economic issue, which is by no means insignificant. “Today, too many transport infrastructure projects in Greece are co-financed, with PPPs (Public-Private Partnerships) or with funding from structural funds and investment banks, such as, for example, the European Investment Bank (EIB). However, these funding mechanisms release funds on the basis of a specific financial framework. This network links to the revenues collected by project operators (e.g. motorway operators) from passenger traffic or tolls. So in case of a drop in revenue, due to the vertical drop in traffic and travel, then a serious issue arises. The financial risk of major transport projects in Greece automatically increases, making financing schemes appear reluctant to participate,” says Politis.
We certainly can’t predict what changes the virus will bring. It’s still possible that there may be some changes in society and advances in technology. For example, the 4th Industrial Revolution is already impacting our modern lives. A number of transformational trends are progressing simultaneously: the growth of or reliance on AI, Big Data and IoT technologies.
As Mr. Politis explains, in a few decades, we will see the elimination of the system of owning a car. A fully automated system will probably replace it, while including driverless shared cars (AVs). The control of buses and bicycles will be through agreements between states (since vehicles will also travel from state to state).
One of the main concerns that people usually have when it comes to AI is technical problems. Research has shown, though, that these are actually quite rare. They’re more important in other fields like security and management.
“I don’t think a pandemic will affect the transition to this model I’m talking about” says Politis. He underlines, though, the review of timelines.
“The pioneer in AVs was the US. They brought autonomous vehicles to the forefront both as a concept and in research. And until recently it sounded like we could have them in more mass production and use within the next decade. Last January, though, for the first time I heard at the Transport Research Board conference in Washington, D.C., that the pace at which we thought things would develop would probably be slower. Instead of a decade, we now hear 15 or even 20 years as a timeframe,” concludes Ioannis Politis.
According to Mr Naniopoulos, although it may be a while before fully autonomous vehicles are widely available, Level 4 autonomous vehicles (AVs) will eventually be a reality. In an age where people can order taxi-type services through their phone and have the car arrive in minutes, there is no doubt that these AVs will have a huge and profitable market. This technology may even make it unprofitable.
“When this happens, it will be a dramatic development of technology. It will create huge opportunities and mobilise very large investments from countries, organisations, car manufacturers, cybersecurity providers and AI companies,” says Aristotle Naniopoulos.
“I was recently talking to a colleague from Coventry (England), where they conduct AV tests in a real environment. He told me that there is a great demand for real-world test sites. Greece offers ideal conditions for this. It has a complex traffic environment with a variety of climatic conditions at different times of the year. It is, thus, a very interesting case in terms of the data available for collection”.
He adds that the 4th industrial revolution and other restrictions are affecting traffic flows. He states that it’s the perfect time to use chatbot tools like Cubi (robots, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, IoT). There is a new reality, now created, and people all over the world will be increasingly mobile within it.
“All this new becoming does not only create fears, but also opportunities. And we as Greece can also play a role. We can pursue entrepreneurship, creation, the production of new products and services at low cost. We have the minds that can produce technology, if we acquire the mindset. It’s important to stop criminalizing entrepreneurship and profit, we can achieve a lot in this field”, concludes Mr. Naniopoulos.
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Author: PC-GR
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